The International Monetary Fund expects Sudan’s economy to shrink by 18% this year

The International Monetary Fund expects Sudan’s economy to shrink by 18% this year

In a report published Thursday, the International Monetary Fund expected that Sudan’s growth in 2023 would decline by 18 percent due to the repercussions of the recent war, which will exacerbate the already widespread humanitarian crisis caused by decades-long conflicts.

The IMF said in its report on the economic prospects in the Middle East and Central Asia region, which was presented in Marrakesh, where the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are held, that “the worsening crisis in Sudan will have a major impact on individuals and livelihoods, with the expectation that GDP growth will contract.” By 18 percent during 2023.”

The report noted that the conflict also leads to “severe economic unrest,” with “consequent damage to infrastructure, great difficulty in providing basic services, and widespread displacement,” affecting neighboring countries, especially Egypt and Chad.

Since mid-April, there has been fighting between the army commander, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and his former deputy, Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who leads the Rapid Support Forces, mainly in Khartoum and the Darfur region.

So far, more than nine thousand people have been killed in the Sudanese conflict, according to figures from the non-governmental organization ACLED, which specializes in collecting conflict data. It is likely that this outcome is much lower than the actual outcome.

The conflict also left more than five million displaced and refugees and exacerbated the humanitarian and health crisis in the country, which is one of the poorest countries in the world.

The report considered that the conflict deepens “the humanitarian crisis in the country that has been ongoing for more than two decades. Economic and social conditions have deteriorated since 2021, with the devaluation of the currency leading to a massive rise in inflation and worsening food insecurity.”

He added that inflation “remains very high in Sudan due to the impact of previous climate crises, low crop stocks, and the ongoing war.”

The Fund believed that the significant increase in the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance since the outbreak of the latest war in April “partly reflects a 20 percent rise in food prices recorded between March and June, which reduced access to sufficient and safe food supplies.”

The United Nations constantly repeats that it needs more financial support, as it has received only a quarter of the funding needed to meet the needs of 25 million Sudanese who depend on humanitarian aid to survive.

The Fund expected that the repercussions of the conflict in Sudan would be “long-term due to the severe damage to infrastructure and human capital, and it may require rebuilding for many years.”

In the medium term, the Fund believes that “the weak Sudanese economy will negatively impact neighboring countries and North Africa more broadly.”

To avoid these repercussions, the Fund believed that “international and regional donor countries must contribute to refugee relief efforts and continue their efforts to end the conflict as soon as possible.”